Overall university enrolments are down this year despite government efforts to bolster their numbers, with new statistics also showing ICT is losing favour among new university students who have instead flocked to study in fields like health, society and culture.

Just 2.9 per cent of new university students – some 7,686 incoming students – chose to enrol in ICT-related degrees this year, a significant drop from last year when around 9,750 students chose to study ICT-related fields.

The decline reflects a broader easing in university enrolments.

According to the Australasian Conference of Tertiary Admissions Centres (ACTAC), state enrolment boards reported making just 265,046 undergraduate offers for tertiary courses this year.

That was down 2.2 per cent compared with the 271,097 offers last year – contradicting earlier reports of “strong demand for tertiary study” and negating the Commonwealth government’s addition of 17,500 places last October, and 9,500 more in November.

At the time, Minister for Education Jason Clare said the extra places “mean the number of Australians starting uni will be at record levels,” although he subsequently worked to stoke demand by adding an additional 1,500 places in bridging Fee-Free Uni-Ready Courses.

Despite those initiatives, the reduction in overall offers reflects changing dynamics in a university market that has struggled to rebalance domestic and international student enrolments – but the decline in ICT enrolments has ACTAC puzzled.

Is ICT losing its lustre?

There is no obvious reason for the “steady decline” in ICT enrolments given the continuing strong demand for AI, cloud, and other related skills ACTAC convenor Teresa Tjia told the ABC, suggesting that “it’s an area which needs to be monitored”.

The quality of the programs is unlikely to be the culprit, with Computer Science courses at seven Australian unis ranked in the global top 100, according to the recently released World University Rankings by Subject.

That annual ranking recognised the programs at Melbourne, Monash, Sydney, UNSW, ANU, UTS, and Adelaide universities, although the ICT courses at 11 other institutions ranked within the top 250 in the world.

The drop in ICT enrolments bodes poorly for a skills pipeline that has been struggling to maintain momentum as the industry pushes towards its goal of building its workforce to 1.2 million by 2030.

Recruiters are already dealing with the implications of what Paxus senior account director Nathan Coller called “a shrinking talent pool” that would make this year “one for the record books” as demand continues to surge, particularly driven by demand for AI-related skills.

AI demand is growing “in practical delivery roles rather than big standalone AI teams,” he said, while cyber security is set to become “an even more prominent part of the ICT landscape as the pace of new data breaches shows no sign of letting up.”w

Yet demand at the pointy end of the market – where businesses are hungry for staff with expertise in AI and other new technologies – belies the changing situation in meat-and-potatoes roles such as network and systems engineering.

Such roles were long seen as being in shortage, yet Jobs and Skills Australia’s Occupation Shortage List now shows that while cybersecurity demand remains strong, there are adequate numbers of network and telecoms engineers, ICT analysts, managers, and more.

Or is AI to blame?

Whether students are shifting away from ICT because they perceive that it’s no longer a golden ticket to a luxe job, they’ve heard about ongoing degree fraud, they’re questioning uni’s value, or because they’ve heard it’s harder than expected to land a job, is not clear.

Many students may even be put off by fears that AI is making ICT jobs redundant – a half-truth and a paradox rolled into one, since AI jobs are Australia’s fastest growing area even as firms refocus their workforces and wind back their hiring of junior staff after adopting it.

Despite the uncertainty around AI, analyses continue to suggest that it’s enhancing job outcomes for skilled graduates and professionals – with the PwC Australia 2025 AI Jobs Barometer noting that AI-skilled workers attracted a 56 per cent wage premium in 2024.

Australian students already lag OECD averages when it comes to attaining master’s or equivalent degrees and tertiary degrees are linked to a lower salary premium here than in other OECD countries – with graduates earning just 29 per cent more than non-graduates.

If today’s new university students feel AI’s pervasiveness risks making their qualifications redundant by the time they finish three years from now, many may eschew uni for shorter courses, microlearning and non-degree pathways designed to get them working faster.