Pushing back against widespread anti-immigration protests, the federal government has announced that it will increase the intake of international students by 25,000 next year while maintaining migration levels through 2026, with a particular focus on skilled migrants.
Australia’s 2025-26 Permanent Migration Program (PMP) will maintain “the same level and settings” as this year’s program, an uncharacteristically terse announcement by Minister for Immigration and Citizenship Tony Burke said, allowing 185,000 migrants next year.
The choice to hold PMP levels at their 2024-25 level – down from 190,000 the year before and 195,000 in 2022-23 – comes after state and territories “recommended maintaining the size and composition of the program, with a focus on skilled migration,” Burke added.
Labor previously anticipated higher figures, with last year’s Budget papers projecting that migration levels would be cut to 255,000 during 2025-26 and 235,000 afterwards.
The decision comes months after the Coalition’s election proposal to slash migration to 140,000 in a move that, a Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) analysis found, would have cost $3.4 billion over the forward estimates period due to loss of income tax revenue.
The re-elected Albanese government faced difficult choices as the public continued to link high migration numbers – ABS figures placed net migration at 446,000 people during fiscal 2023-24, down from 536,000 the year earlier – with a range of economic woes.
Recent protests – including a podium takeover by neo-Nazi Thomas Sewell and heated anti-immigration rallies in capital cities, which led to an attack on the Aboriginal Camp Sovereignty protest site – reflect ongoing controversy around migration.
High migration levels have been blamed for a range of problems, particularly around the ongoing housing crisis – although with unemployment, inflation and interest rates easing in recent months, some have argued that the perceived link is specious.
Migration and skills development bodies welcomed the announcement, with Migration Institute of Australia CEO Peter van Vliet calling it “sensible” and “a good sign for employers and businesses who are facing skills shortages.”
“Maintaining the current permanent migration planning level enhances business confidence in addressing skills shortages via Employer Sponsored visas, and contributes to our economy and tax base,” he said.
Boosting international student numbers… slowly
The simultaneous announcement increasing the National Planning Level (NPL) target for overseas student places, from 270,000 this year to 295,000 in 2026, reflects efforts to put student numbers on what Education Minister Jason Clare called “a more sustainable path.”
After last year’s controversial cap, international student commencements in May declined by 15 per cent year on year to 240,659, recent figures confirmed, with VET enrolments down by 20 per cent, school enrolments down 11 per cent, and English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) down 43 per cent.
International students transitioning from Australian secondary schools, or vocational uni pathways, will be exempted from the NPL and universities must apply to the government to increase the number of places they can offer – with decisions to be published in October.
To be eligible, universities will be required to show “increased engagement with Southeast Asia” and, in a nod to concerns about housing pressures, demonstrate progress to provide “access to safe and secure housing” for domestic and international students.
Ministerial Direction 111 – which was introduced last December as a way to fast-track the processing of student visa applications for certain uni and VET courses – will be replaced with an updated policy to reflect the changes.
“This is about backing providers who do the right things,” Clare said, “and giving them the certainty they need to grow sustainably.”
Reforming the education sector
Clare also announced a review of university overseer the Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency (TEQSA), launching a consultation paper for feedback by 17 October as he moves to update the agency’s regulatory powers for the first time since it was created.
TEQSA “needs better tools to act when there are issues at our unis,” he said, adding that “at the moment TEQSA has a sledgehammer and a feather, and not much in-between.”
Reform will update the regulator’s work with universities and the way they work with each other, Clare said, flagging outer suburban unis as “capable of doing a lot of the heavy lifting here in boosting the number of people from disadvantaged backgrounds in unis.”
From 2027, Clare said, new legislation is expected to see the mooted Australian Tertiary Education Commission (ATEC) managing higher education growth arrangements while the international VET sector will be shaped by “visa processing and integrity reforms”.
ATEC wants to “build a system rather than have universities constantly competing against each other,” Clare said, noting that steady ongoing change should mean that “in 10 years’ time the system doesn’t look as homogenous then as it does now.”
